Numbers have begun rolling in for this first weekend of February and boy was I off with my predictions from Thursday! M. Night Shyamalan’s Knock at the Cabin should still come in first place, but it is opening softer than I anticipated with an estimated $15 million based off a $5.6 million Friday. I actually saw the writing on the wall for this one when I saw it Thursday night (after I had written my predictions) in a Dolby theater that was fairly empty. The opening puts it right in line with Night’s last film Old that opened to $16.8 million back in July 2021. That opening is a big reason I thought this movie would come in higher. Allow me to take you all the way back to summer 2021 when movie theaters were still struggling to find their footing and many people were still wary of going back to theaters. Since then, we have seen two of the highest grossing movies ever released (Spider-Man: No Way Home and Avatar: The Way of Water) so it would seem movie theaters have rebounded, maybe not fully, but enough, from the pandemic. I thought the marketing campaign for Knock was well done and early reactions (before any reviews were posted) hailed it as Shyamalan’s best film in 20 years.
Our own Chris Bumbray gave Knock at the Cabin a solid 8/10 in his review. I will say that I enjoyed watching the movie, but when it ended, I had a sense of being unfulfilled by what I had just seen. It definitely keeps you glued to the screen throughout its runtime, and Dave Bautista really is a genuine stand out in the film, but when the credits rolled I found myself saying “wait, is that it?” Of course film is subjective and if the trailers piqued your interest at all, you should definitely go check it out in theaters as it is worth a watch (which is more than I can say for the recently released independent film Skinamarink which was an absolute waste of my time, I had to apologize to my friends for taking them to see that one).
The real story this weekend however is the fact that 80 For Brady could potentially upset Knock at the Cabin and pull out a first place finish as it looks to finish around $14 million after a $5.1 million Friday. All eyes will be on Saturday numbers. Generally speaking, genre movies like Knock at the Cabin tend to be front loaded with larger than normal Friday to Saturday drop offs while older skewing movies tend to play better in the long run. Add to that the fact that 80 For Brady has a 90% audience score compared to Knock’s 70% and you will see word of mouth kick in for the Super Bowl comedy featuring four legends of the screen.
Third place will be the record breaking Avatar: The Way Of Water with a projected take of just over $10 million after a $2.1 million Friday. The film passed The Avengers this week as it officially entered the top ten highest grossing films of all time at the domestic box office. It seems people are getting in their last viewings in premium formats such as Imax 3D as Avatar will lose those screens in just two weeks when Ant-man and the Wasp: Quantumania is released.
Fourth place is another film that has had quite the bit of staying power at the box office with the family film Puss in Boots: The Last Wish with a projected $7.9 million weekend based off a $1.7 million Friday. With Eddie Murphy recently saying he would love to voice Donkey again (in either a Shrek 5 or a Donkey spinoff movie). I think the massive success of this sequel will definitely help the powers that be see either of those films would be a gold mine.
Fifth place looks to be The Chosen: Season 3 Finale with an estimated $7 million (with $8.6 made since opening on Thursday, where it actually was the number 1 movie for the day). When the first two episodes of this season premiered in theaters back in November, it was able to secure $8.2 million for a third place finish. Count this as another win for faith based releases after last weeks surprise top ten finisher Left Behind: Rise of the Antichrist.
Coming in sixth place for right now, is the limited release concert film BTS: Yet to Come in Cinemas which was able to secure $1.7 million on Friday and could finish the weekend in the top ten with an estimated $4.6 million. BTS is not exactly in my wheelhouse of music (let me know when Between The Buried and Me or Metallica have a concert film in theaters) but you can’t underestimate their appeal!
Did you make it to theaters this weekend? If so, let us know what you saw and how much you liked (or disliked) it, and don’t forget to check back tomorrow when we have a full rundown on this weekend’s box office numbers.
Originally published at https://www.joblo.com/box-office-update-tight-race-between-knock-at-the-cabin-and-80-for-brady/